Supergirl Is Already Facing Box Office Kryptonite

By Chris Snellgrove
| Updated 6 seconds ago

Supergirl is set to fly into theaters on June 26th. The marketing campaign is in full swing, and for good reason: this isn’t just yet another superhero movie from Warner Bros. This is the second feature film set in the DCU, the shared universe overseen by studio head James Gunn. Last year, Gunn’s Superman became the hottest film of the summer, beating out competition from Marvel’s highly anticipated rival movies, The Thunderbolts and The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Superman ultimately earned $618.7 million, a healthy box office that indicated how seemingly hungry moviegoers were for a new superhero cinematic universe.

Just how hungry are they, though? Supergirl’s own box office will determine whether Superman’s success was a fluke or whether the DCU has the legs to go the distance. Unfortunately, it looks like the Woman of Steel is already facing a nasty dose of Kryptonite ahead of her film’s premiere. Right now, the movie is tracking to earn $55 million in its opening weekend. By comparison, Superman had an opening weekend of $125 millionn, and Supergirl’s much lower projection may sink this film for its titular heroine before it can go up, up, and away.

Krypto, Good; Kryptonite, Bad

With the movie’s premiere less than three weeks away, it’s possible that Supergirl will earn a bit more than analysts have predicted. If the projection is accurate, though, a $55 million opening weekend would spell bad news for this upcoming film. Why is that? For one thing, the movie has a budget of $175 million. According to Deadlineonce you factor in the costs of marketing, Supergirl will need to make $315 million just to break even. A low opening weekend means that it will be an uphill climb for the movie to make a profit because, with the exception of major anomalies like Obsessionbox office begins plunging after the first week.

Those high marketing costs are often kryptonite for superhero movies, even ones that are very successful. For example, James Gunn’s Superman earned $618.7 million, which is a healthy amount in the golden age of superhero fatigue. But that movie reportedly needed $562.5 million to break even, meaning that the flagship film of the DCU ultimately earned much less profit than you might think (and may have lost money after the studio split profits with theaters). Superman was still a success when you consider video rentals, physical media sales, etc, but that success would have been impossible without its $125 million opening weekend. Supergirl needs far less box office to break even, but it’s also projected to earn 56 percent less than Superman when it premieres.

The Eyes Have It

If Supergirl fails at the box office, it will be the fault of Warner Bros., which made a very expensive gamble on a character that isn’t exactly a household name. However, this movie succumbing to Kryptonite doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the DCU. The upcoming TV show Lanternsfor example, is already generating buzz for this cinematic universe, and James Gunn is hard at work on Man of Tomorrowthe sequel to Superman. Should that movie succeed, it means the Man of Steel’s brand is strong, and Supergirl will fade into being a supporting character. If the Superman sequel bombs, however, it may take the DCU with it.

At any rate, none of this is fixed in stone. Supergirl may very well earn more in its opening weekend than these early projects indicate, and if it’s really goodthen it may earn enough in subsequent weeks to make a major profit for the studio. If nothing else, it will be fun to see Milly Alcock’s irreverent hero headline a film, just as it will be entertaining to see Jason Momoa finally bring Lobo to the big screen. A beautiful woman who can kill with a glance, fighting alongside a genocidal maniac literally too evil for Hell? With this team-up, you know that Supergirl will be anything but boring!