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By Chris Snellgrove
| Published
Right now, Supergirl’s box office is looking pretty grim. Things seemed bad enough when the movie was projected to earn, domestically, between $45-$55 million in the first weekend, which was less than half of what Superman earned last year ($125 million). However, those projections just kept shrinking as we got closer to the film’s official release. Now, it looks like the film will earn more like $40 million domestically, with Toy Story 5 absolutely trouncing it at the box office. At this point, Supergirl’s only real shot at box office success is if it, like Obsessiongets great word-of-mouth to get more butts in seats in the coming weeks.
Unfortunately, it looks like that’s just not going to happen. According to PostTrak (which surveys moviegoers on how they felt about a film immediately after they leave the theater), only 52 percent of those who saw Supergirl would definitely recommend that others see it. This effectively compounds the bad box office problems: only a few people showed up to see this blockbuster film, and of the ones who did turn out, only about half said they would enthusiastically recommend it. In the short-term, this is bad for Supergirl; in the long run, though, this may spell disaster for the DCU.
Really Bad Word Of Mouth
Considering that it’s a blockbuster summer tentpole and the second film of the DCU, Supergirl’s box office is looking grim. The movie was basically dead on arrival, and everyone is now conducting an autopsy on exactly what went wrong. Much of that is up for debate: many blame writer Ana Nogueira, while others blame DC Studios CEO James Gunn, who hired Nogueira and championed her script as one of the best he has ever seen. Of course, many blame Craig Gillespie, the director who transformed a beloved, buzzworthy comic (Supergirl: The Woman of Tomorrow) into a largely bland and forgettable romp through space.
Whoever deserves the most blame, one thing’s for sure: Supergirl has failed to impress about half of those who saw it. According to PostTrak, men made up 59 percent of the movie’s audience, and only 45 percent would definitely recommend that others see it. Women made up 41 percent of the audience, and 62 percent of them would definitely recommend that others see it. Crunch those numbers, and you are left with only 52 percent of those surveyed saying they would enthusiastically recommend that others watch Supergirl.
It Gets Even Worse
Supergirl getting such poor word of mouth helps to partially explain why the movie’s opening weekend projections just keep lowering. In fact, some estimate that it may earn closer to $35 million domestically in its opening weekend. Believe it or not, though, things get even worse when you compare Supergirl to other tights-and-flights films. For example, it had a CinemaScore rating of B-, which may not sound that bad. But that’s a lower rating than The Flash, which is widely considered the movie that killed the DCEU. It’s a lower rating than The Marvelswhich is the first MCU film to actually lose money.
Speaking of money, The Marvels earned $47 million domestically in its opening weekend, which is at least $7 million more than Supergirl will earn. Heck, even Morbiusthe internet’s favorite punchline of a movie, earned $39.1 million, making (believe it or not) a profit; Supergirl will be a loss for the studio. To put this even more in perspective, this latest DCU film is doing badly enough at the box office that it may not even earn $200 million worldwide by the time it leaves theaters. Put another way, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may earn more in its opening weekend than Supergirl does in its entire run!
Obviously, all of this spells bad news for Supergirl. But it may spell even worse news for the DCU as a whole. That’s because, among other things, this bad box office and poor word-of-mouth prove that audiences won’t necessarily show up for feature films featuring relatively minor characters. That means we might get a correspondingly terrible box office for Clayfacethe movie about a Batman villain that is inexplicably coming out before Batman makes his DCU debut.
Plus, Supergirl writer Ana Nogueira is going to be writing the scripts for both Wonder Woman and Teen Titans. Unlike Supergirlthese characters are absolute fan-favorites, and in the hands of the right writer, they could be runaway successes for the DCU. But if the scripts for those films end up being as mediocre as Supergirl’s, they may similarly implode. Should those films flop, they may cause some serious collateral damage. Namely, they may destroy this cinematic universe as surely as The Flash destroyed the DCU, leaving Marvel with no real rival as the MCU reboots its entire universe with Avengers: Secret Wars.
