Nvidia Is Back Above $5 Trillion. Here’s What Comes Next

Quick Read

• NVDA recrossed $5 trillion as Q1 FY27 Data Center revenue surged 92% to $75 billion, with Q2 guided to $91 billion.

• Read moreAfter Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now

  China delivered zero Data Center compute revenue versus $4.6 billion a year ago, representing the single clearest headwind blocking NVDA’s path to $300.

• Don’t wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is back through the $5 trillion mark. CEO Jensen Huang called “the buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history” on the most recent earnings call, and the numbers back him up.

Data Center revenue hit $75.246 billion in Q1 FY27, up 92% year over year, with Networking alone growing 199%. The stock is up 14.05% year to date at $212.45. Can shares reach $300 in 2026? Let’s run the math.

What’s Holding NVIDIA Back Right Now

NVIDIA shares are down 5.6% over the past month and trade 27% below recent levels relative to expectations. China remains a closed market, with zero Data Center compute revenue from the region in Q1 FY27 versus $4.6 billion a year earlier. Supply commitments now sit at $119 billion, raising execution risk if demand softens.

Reports of a $20 billion debt raise, while likely funding the new $80 billion buyback authorization, sparked debate about why a company with $48.554 billion in quarterly free cash flow needs to tap credit markets. With a beta of 2.2, the stock swings hard on any capex doubt.

Wall Street Sees 41% Upside. Our Model Says Less

Of 61 covering analysts, 10 rate it Strong Buy, 48 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell, with a consensus target of $298.93. Our base case is $235.49 by year end, implying 21.13% upside, with a bull case of $267.96 and a bear case of $218.43. Confidence sits at 90%.

With 95% bullish coverage and earnings growth of 214.5% YoY, the consensus reflects a real fundamental shift. Our model dampens the result because of mega-cap gravity, not because the thesis is broken.

Don’t wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.

The Path to $300 Per Share

Reaching $300 from today’s price of $212.45 would require a 41.2% gain. With forward EPS of $8.01, a price of $300 implies a forward P/E of 37x. Our base case of $235.49 already implies 36x on trailing earnings, meaning the bold target requires only about 1.1x additional multiple expansion on forward numbers.

Q2 guidance of $91 billion in revenue with a 75% non-GAAP gross margin should compress that forward multiple as EPS estimates climb.

Catalysts include a $1 trillion data center buildout, the Meta multiyear deal, the OpenAI 10GW deployment, and Huang’s view that “agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value and scaling rapidly”. Primary risk: any cut to hyperscaler capex guidance would hit this stock first and hardest.

Where NVIDIA Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power

At $212.45 against forward EPS of $8.01, NVIDIA trades at roughly 27x forward earnings. For a company growing revenue 85.2% and net income 210.6% YoY, with a PEG of 0.631, that is not expensive.

Shares sit between a 52-week low of $141.84 and high of $236.26. The ten-year return of 18,447% shows what compounding looks like when a platform owns its category.

$300 Is a Stretch, But Here’s Why It’s Possible

$300 requires a 41.2% gain from here. Three things need to go right.

Q2 FY27 has to land near the $91 billion guide. Blackwell and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform need to keep Data Center Networking compounding at triple digits. And the $80 billion buyback needs to chew through the float meaningfully before year end. Any sign hyperscaler AI capex is plateauing would derail it. We’ve outlined the blueprint for how NVIDIA could reach $300 in 2026.

Don’t wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.