Toy Story 5 Set For The Biggest Box Office Opening Of 2026 So Far

Pixar is about to return to the top of the box office in a big, bad way. The original “Toy Story” launched Pixar, one of cinema’s most reliable hit-makers (at least before the pandemic upended the industry). While the storied animation studio is still having a little bit of trouble making original hits again, Buzz and Woody are back to save the day in “Toy Story 5.” It appears that audiences aren’t remotely tired of these characters and this universe, either, as the sequel is set for a massive opening weekend.

As of this writing, director Andrew Stanton’s “Toy Story 5” is eyeing an opening in the $145-$165 million range when it hits theaters next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That would be the biggest opening in the history of the franchise, topping “Toy Story 4” ($120.9 million), a movie that went on to earn $1.07 billion worldwide. It will also mark the biggest opening weekend of 2026 thus far. “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” ruled the box office with a $131 million opening, though it made $148.5 million over the long Easter weekend.

But as far as a pure Friday to Sunday debut goes, Pixar’s latest is going to set a new high bar for the year. “Hoppers” left the future of Pixar on hopeful ground earlier this year, opening to $45 million and earning a so-so $372 million worldwide. At the very least, it wasn’t an outright, huge flop, meaning that Pixar originals are safe for now. But the sequels are where the big money has been for a long time, and that’s going to hold true this summer, it seems.

“Toy Story 5” centers on Woody (Tom Hanks), Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen), Jessie (Joan Cusack), and the rest of the gang as their jobs are challenged when they come face-to-face with Lilypad (Greta Lee), a brand-new tablet device that arrives for Bonnie to play with. Indeed, Lilypad has her own disruptive ideas about what is best for their kid.

What we’ve seen in recent years in regards to Pixar is that decisions made during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 caused real harm to the brand. The studio’s “Luca,” “Soul,” and “Turned Red” all went directly to streaming on Disney+ at no additional cost to subscribers. That essentially taught people that Pixar movies were free now. Former Disney CEO Bob Iger even admitted that Pixar movies going to streaming hurt the brand. Since then, Pixar has remained committed to originals, but it’s had to suffer flops such as “Elio” ($154 million worldwide), by far the lowest-grossing movie in the studio’s history.

“Elemental” ($496 million worldwide) gave Disney reason to be optimistic about Pixar, particularly as it relates to original titles. However, for the past several years, it really has been the sequels within established franchises that have carried the brand. Case in point: 2024’s “Inside out 2” made an astounding $1.69 billion worldwide, becoming one of the highest-grossing movies of all time.

“Inside Out 2” had its record topped by “Ne Zha 2,” which nobody saw coming, but that doesn’t take anything away from the fact that Pixar, for a time, very recently, had the highest-grossing animated movie ever to its name. Under the right circumstances, people will still turn out in droves for these movies.

The good news is that the opening weekend numbers for “Toy Story 5” all but assure that it will be one of the biggest movies of 2026 when all’s said and done. “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” became Hollywood’s first $1 billion hit of the year recently after opening in the same ballpark as the very low-end current estimates for this sequel. That bodes well.

What really helps is that Pixar movies still tend to perform well overseas, which has been harder and harder for Hollywood fare in recent years. “Inside Out 2” opened to $154 million domestically en route to $1.69 billion globally. “Toy Story 5” could easily open in a similar range. In fact, it could very well post Pixar’s second-biggest opening ever, trailing only “Incredibles 2” ($182 million opening/$1.24 billion worldwide). That made the latter one of the highest-grossing animated movies of all time.

The comparisons are very favorable. It also helps that PG/family-friendly movies have been doing gangbusters business in recent years. “Lilo & Stitch” also made $1 billion at the box office for Disney last year, for example. With an opening of this size, $1 billion really starts to look like the floor for the forthcoming sequel, assuming reviews are good and audiences enjoy it. Pixar rarely releases a critical dud, so that seems like a safe bet.

It’s a little disheartening that audiences are only turning out en masse for the sequels right now, but these massive successes can help ensure that Pixar gets the chance to keep making originals as well. In that way, this movie’s success is welcome and important.

“Toy Story 5” hits theaters on June 19, 2026.