SpaceX is about to make history—and 80% of VCs won’t see a dime of it

Lots of buzz about SpaceX’s IPO slated for Friday. Given the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation range that has been thrown around—and the prospect of a total $5 trillion in value coming online after adding in Anthropic and OpenAI—you would be forgiven for thinking this summer means salvation for venture capital.

That’s the idea floating around out there, said Nizar Tarhuni, executive VP of research and market intelligence at PitchBook.

“There’s a narrative that this is the unleash,” said Tarhuni, who spoke during our live Term Sheet breakfast this week. That this is the savior of the venture market and locked-up liquidity, and I think it’s an important milestone, but it’s not necessarily a watershed moment.”

It all sounds tempting for a venture industry starved for exits, to be suddenly confronted with the onslaught of SpaceX, and then the confidential-but-nowhere-near-final IPO filings from OpenAI and Anthropic. It sure reads like everyone is about to eat.

That’s just not the case, said Tarhuni.

He estimated there are about 11,000 venture investors out there in the market, and maybe 3,500 to 4,000 who are doing at least two deals a year. Among those, about 700 are invested in one of these three companies. That’s about 20% of the book, which means 80% of active VC are outside what looks to be one of the most significant liquidity events in history.

When Tarhuni, and his co-panelists CapitalG’s Mo Jomaa and Notable Capital’s Hans Tung, broke it down, the conclusion was that these companies are anomalies. Since 2015, about $1.5 trillion in venture value has come to the capital markets. SpaceX is about to do that on its own. OpenAI and Anthropic will easily overshadow the size of other public listings in the past two decades, or ever.

They’re going public because their appetite for capital, more specifically their need for compute power, is larger than what the private markets can properly nourish and feed. Even among the limited partners that fund all of this, there’s a concentrated hierarchy.

The top tier of LPs got into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, said Tung, either directly or through funds. Their numbers are about to look dramatically better than those of their peers. They’ll want more direct access to the next three dozen AI names that matter, he added, and that will inevitably push capital toward a shrinking set of winners. Tung predicts a multi-year shakeout that will ripple through the LP base, the venture market and even the buyout market, and all at once. Buyouts haven’t been adjusted for the AI impact, and the next decade will see plenty go through, said Tung.

“The ripple effect, I think, is going to be dramatic over the next five years,” he said.

So, no this is not an open IPO window, said Jomaa, a partner at Alphabet’s independent growth fund. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to take away from this moment.

“IPO windows come and go, and they open and close, and it’s like [riding] a very cyclical roller coaster, but the lessons and the investments you make to become IPO-ready are very timeless,” said Jomaa. SpaceX is investing heavily in its growth story, said Jomaa, because at the end of the day, “growth compounds, margins do not.”

“At the end of the day, investors buy stories, they don’t just buy stocks,” he said. “If you don’t have a really compelling narrative, investors are skeptical creatures and they will create a defensive one for you.”

See you tomorrow,

Amanda Gerut
Email: amanda.gerut@fortune.com
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P.S. It’s here: the inaugural Fortune Crypto 100. In the tradition of the Fortune 500, our editorial team has ranked the most influential companies and protocols in the digital asset ecosystem from crypto-native pioneers like Coinbase and Uniswap to Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and BlackRock. See who made the list, and who came out on top in all 10 categories here.

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VENTURE DEALS

– NERVES Roboticsa Metzingen, Germany-based cognitive robotics company, raised $1.4 billion in Series C funding from Tether, Qualcomm, Amazon, NVIDIAand others.

– TensorWavea Las Vegas, Nev.-based AI infrastructure company focused on GPU cloud computing, raised $350 million in Series B funding. Magnetar and AMD Ventures led the round and were joined by Maverick Silicon, Nexus Venture Partnersand Western Frontier.

– SonoTheraa South San Francisco-based developer of genetic medicines, raised $125 million in Series B funding. Vida Ventures led the round and was joined by ARK Invest, CureDuchenne Ventures, Leaps by Bayer, Otsuka Pharmaceuticaland others.

– Poetica San Francisco-based AI enterprise automation/compliance platform, raised $50 million in Series A funding. Kleiner Perkins led the round and was joined by Founders Fund, First Harmonicand OpenAI.

– Pia San Francisco-based agentic AI security company, raised $35 million in funding. Brightmind Partners and Third Point Ventures led the round.

– Aryan Securitya Tel Aviv, Israel-based cloud security enforcement platform, raised $29 million in Series A funding. Brightmind Partners led the round and was joined by Datadog Ventures and others.

– Manevaa Palo Alto, Calif.-based industrial AI platform for manufacturing operations, raised $27 million in Series A funding. U.S. Venture Partners led the round and was joined by Bling Capital, Freestyle Capitaland angel investors.

– Jedifya New York City-based AI data applications platform, raised $24 million in Series A funding. Norway led the round and was joined by Snowflake and existing investors.

– box AIa London, U.K. and New York City-based AI operating system for private capital, raised $18 million in Series A funding. TX Ventures and Pivot Investment Partners led the round and were joined by Bek Ventures.

– F2a New York City-based compounding intelligence platform for private markets, raised $14 million in seed funding. HighlandX led the round.

– SWARM Engineeringan Irvine, Calif.-based AI decision intelligence company focused on agrifood and manufacturing, raised $10 million in Series A funding. S2G Investments and AgRogue Growth Partners led the round.

– Niteshifta New York City-based cloud platform for AI coding agents, raised $7 million in seed funding. Greylock led the round and was joined by Amplify Partners, Lux Capital, BoxGroupand SV Angel.

– Uncovra New York City and Paris, France-based surgical AI platform that automates operative documentation and coding, raised $7 million in seed funding. Index Ventures led the round and was joined by Seedcamp, Frst, No Label Ventures, Entrepreneurs Firstand others.

– RELAYa Bethesda, Md.-based continual learning platform for AI agents, raised $6.9 million in funding, including a $5.4 million pre-seed round led by .406 Ventures.

– Chptra New York City-based fan engagement and monetization platform, raised $5.5 million in Series A funding. CityRock led the round and was joined by Tribute Technology and others.

– Feara San Francisco-based AI-native patent platform, raised $5.5 million in seed funding. Kindred Ventures led the round and was joined by a16z speedrun, Designer Fundand Essence VC.

– Concentrate AIa New York City-based AI workflow automation platform, raised $5 million in pre-seed funding from TRUE Ventures and RRE Ventures.

PRIVATE EQUITY

– Amplixa portfolio company of Gemspring Capitalacquired RAS3 Communications and Consultinga Miami, Fla.-based telecom advisory firm. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– PatientCare EMS Solutionsbacked by Grant Avenue Capitalacquired Superior Mobile Healtha San Antonio, Texas-based health care transportation services company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– SPATCO Energy Solutionsa portfolio company of Kian Capitalacquired Discovery Tank Testinga North Palm Beach, Fla.-based provider of environmental compliance and testing services to retail fueling sites and commercial operators, and Tank Wizardsa West Melbourne, Fla.-based provider of fuel tank-cleaning, fuel polishing and heavy maintenance services. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Walker Sandsbacked by Mountaingate Capitalacquired RevPartnersan Atlanta, Ga.-based revenue operations and GTM engineering firm. Financial terms were not disclosed.

EXITS

– Catchment Capital acquired Isolatek Internationala Stanhope, N.J.-based manufacturer and supplier of passive fireproofing technologies, from SK Capital Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Hyundai Heavy Industries Power agreed to acquire NOT Energya Zoeterwoude, The Netherlands-based heat transfer technology company, from Mutares. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Prices Capital and Partners Capital acquired Super-Soda Charleston, S.C.-based provider of sod, seed, soil, and other landscaping solutions, from Heartwood Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

OTHERS

– Figure agreed to acquire Kiavia Pittsburgh, Penn.-based AI-powered lending platform for residential real estate investors, for $717 million.

Fortune AIQ: From Pilot to Profit

The following case studies cover the transition from AI experimentation to measurable business impact. Explore all of Fortune AIQand read the latest collection of stories below:

—Why dbt Labs CEO views AI efficiency and creativity as the same thing

—Omnisend offers quarterly raises for employees who use AI to drive business impact

—AI is supercharging cyberattacks—and most companies aren’t ready

—How Lumen’s ‘maniacal focus’ on KPIs drove measurable AI impact

—AI agents are flattening corporate hierarchies. Here’s how to develop a new playbook